Taron doka na farko na TSMC a 2021 zai girgiza duniya. Shugaba Wei Zhejia ya sanar da cewa, kashe kudin da za a kashe a wannan shekarar zai kasance tsakanin dala biliyan 25 da biliyan 28, karin da ya karu da kashi 45% zuwa 62% sama da na bara, kuma ya fi sama da biliyan 21 da aka fara tsammani tun da farko saka hannun jari na kasashen waje. Kusa da dala.
Mutanen da suka firgita suna ci gaba da yin tambayoyi game da kashe kuɗaɗe, "Shin saboda fitar da Intel ne?" "Shin daga ƙarfin kuzarin wayoyin hannu ne ko HPC (High-Performance Computing)?" "Shin wannan ya hada da kudin da ake kashewa wajen gina masana'antu a Amurka?"
A yau, "TSMC yana shiga wani babban zangon girma." Wei Zhejia yana da kwarin gwiwa, yana mai jaddada cewa 5G da sarrafa kwamfuta mai inganci (HPC) sun sa cigaban TSMC ya nema mai karfi, kuma HPC zata kawo cigaba mai matukar muhimmanci da dadewa ga TSMC. Drivingarfin motsawar TSMC shine babban mai ba da gudummawa ga haɓakar haɓakar kuɗaɗe. An kiyasta cewa daga wannan shekarar zuwa 2025, haɓakar haɓakar haɗin TSMC na shekara-shekara zai kai 10-15%.
Bugu da ƙari, 80% na dalar Amurka biliyan 20 za a yi amfani da su don ci gaban masana'antu kamar 3nm, 5nm da 7nm.
Wani mai sharhi kan harkokin waje ya ce bayan taron na Fasuo.
Saboda ya yi alwashi a cikin rahoton bincikensa na kwanan nan cewa TSMC za ta karɓi babban tsarin sarrafa Intel a cikin shekaru biyu kuma ya haɓaka ƙimar farashin TSMC da muhimmanci.
Amma a ranar 14, Intel ba zato ba tsammani ta sanar da cewa ta nada Shugaba VMware Pat Gelsinger (Pat Gelsinger) a matsayin sabon Shugaba, ya maye gurbin Shugaba na yanzu Bob Swan, wanda ke matukar goyon bayan fitar da masana'antu. A sakamakon haka, farashin hannun jarin Intel ya tashi sama da 10%.
Mai sharhin ya gigice lokacin da ya ga labarin: "Kaddamar da juyin mulki! Ya wuce!" Shi da wasu 'yan wasan masana'antar sun damu da farko. Yana iya zama cewa sojojin Intel masu ra'ayin mazan jiya ne suka haɗu tare da kwamitin gudanarwa don kai hare-hare, da fatan ba za a ba da mai sarrafawa ga TSMC ba. Darajar Intel.
Amma fiye da awanni goma daga baya, bayan da TSMC ta ba da sanarwar kashe kuɗaɗe wanda ya wuce abin da masana'antar ke tsammani, ya sami kwanciyar hankali.
Saboda, idan umarnin Intel ga TSMC ya canza da gaske saboda “juyin mulki”, “Dole ne TSMC ta firgita sosai a daren jiya, kuma ya kamata a rage gudu. Ba za a sanar da shi a yanzu ba (labarin fadada masana’antu mai girma). ” Ya yi hukunci.
Koyaya, TSMC bata taɓa barin umarnin Intel ba.
Misali, lokacin da Zhan Jiahong na Morgan Stanley Securities ya tambaya ko sau biyu na kudaden da aka kashe a wannan shekara ya samo asali ne ta hanyar ba da umarni na Intel CPUs?
Wei Zhejia ya amsa cewa ba mu yin tsokaci game da takamaiman kwastomomi da takamaiman yankuna, "amma kashe kuɗaɗen jari sun dogara ne da buƙatun dogon lokaci na 5G da HPC, kuma yanayin gaba ɗaya da wannan buƙatar ke nunawa."
Wani manazarci ya bayyana cewa HPC a cikin gidan Wei Zhe a zahiri yana nufin umarnin Intel. Koyaya, a fagen aikin ƙididdiga mai ƙarfi, mafi mahimmancin sabar-girgije, fiye da 90% suna amfani da injiniyoyin Intel masu ci gaba.
Maimaita ɗaukaka, farawa daga wannan shekarar zuwa 2025, haɓakar haɓakar haɓakar shekara-shekara yawan kuɗi shine 10% ~ 15%
Tsarin TSMC ya kuma ambaci tarihi sau biyu a taron: Kudaden babban kudin TSMC sun karu sosai a cikin 2010, kuma sun kawo karuwar adadin shekara 15% daga 2010 zuwa 2015, don haka ya kafa tushe don ci gaban TSMC tsawon shekaru.
Wannan shine shafin da yafi shahara a cikin "Labarin Zhang Zhongmou".
Yana da kwarin gwiwa game da bukatar wayoyi masu zuwa nan gaba da zaran ya koma mukamin babban jami'in gudanarwa. A karkashin adawar daraktoci masu zaman kansu, ya zarce dukkan ra'ayoyi kuma ya ninka yawan kudin da aka kashe a cikin 2010 a karo daya, kuma a karshe ya ba TSMC damar kawar da abokan hamayyarsa da mamaye shi. Masana'antu.
"Wannan karin ya nuna cewa TSMC na da kwarin gwiwa sosai." A shekarar da ta gabata, Hou Mingxiao, shugaban bincike a sashen masana'antar fasaha ta Asiya ta CLSA, wanda ya fara kiran farashin hannun jari na TSMC na yuan 500, shi ma ya nuna "mamaki". Ya ce idan babu abokin ciniki da kuma cikakken hadin kai, TSMC ba za ta yanke shawara irin wannan ba.
Hou Mingxiao ya ce lokacin da Zhang Zhongmou ya fadada yawan kashe kudade a cikin 2010, fasaha ba ita ce ta farko ba. Wahayi ne cike da rashin tabbas. Amma yanzu, "TSMC ya kasance a cikin matsayi na gaba a duniya kuma yana da ƙwarewa mafi girma. Yanzu halin gasa a bayyane yake. Kowa yana bayan sa. Don haka ya kamata ya sami bayanai don sa shugabannin makarantu su sami ƙarfin yin hakan, kuma Yiwuwar samun nasara yayi daidai da hakan. babban! "
Rahoton bincike na Bernstein yayi hasashen cewa a 2023, Intel zata fitar da kashi 10% zuwa 30% na CPU, wanda zai kawo 5% zuwa 10% na kudaden shiga na TSMC.
Ina igiyar ta gaba? Babban haɓakar HPC, ƙirar kasuwar mota
Bugu da ƙari, umarnin Intel ba wai kawai tallafi ne ba bayan haɓakar haɓakar haɓakar ƙimar babban birni na TSMC.
Wei Zhejia ya ce "Mun ga karfi da dama na kasuwanci a dandamali hudu na ci gaban kwamfuta, fasahar kera motoci, Intanet na Abubuwa da wayoyi masu kyau."
Babban jami’in kula da harkokin kudi na TSMC Huang Renzhao ya bayyana cewa kudaden shigar kwata kwata sun fi amfana da kaddamar da wayoyin zamani 5G da aikace-aikacen da suka shafi HPC, wadanda suka kawo karfi bukatar tsarin 5nm na TSMC. A zango na hudu na shekarar da ta gabata, kudin shigar da aka hada ya kai yuan biliyan 361.53, wanda ya karu a shekara 14%, jimlar riba mai yawa ya kai 54%, bayan ribar da aka samu bayan haraji ya kai yuan biliyan 142.77, kuma ribar da aka samu ta kowane kashi ya kai yuan 5.51.
Daga hangen nesa, Wei Zhejia ya nuna cewa HPC ita ce mafi girman abin da ke ci gaba da aikin TSMC zuwa sama. Abokan ciniki daga aikace-aikace daban-daban suna ƙoƙari su sami mafi kyawun aikin sarrafa kwamfuta tare da gine-gine daban-daban. Dangane da jagorancin fasahar TSMC, yana iya kasancewa cikin mafi kyawun matsayi don fahimtar yanayin masana'antar, 2020 zuwa 2025 zai sami haɓakar haɓakar shekara 10% zuwa 15%.
Bangaren kera motoci kuma yana cinna wuta: Duk da cewa kasuwar kera motocin ta dan yi rauni a shekarar 2018 kuma sabon annobar kambin ta fi shafa a shekarar da ta gabata, wanda hakan ya sa kwastomomin TSMC suka rage bukata a zango na uku na shekarar bara, Wei Zhejia ya ce TSMC ya fara don ganin alamun farfadowar masana'antu a cikin kwata na huɗu na shekarar da ta gabata.
Ya ce saboda sake dawo da bukatar da ake da ita a cikin mashin din kera motoci, matattarar iya samar da karfi za ta bayyana karara. "TSMC za ta ba shi fifiko kuma ya ci gaba da aiki tare da abokan cinikinmu na lantarki don tallafawa buƙatun iya aiki."
Kari akan haka, wayoyin hannu suma suna kara dumi a hankali: a wannan shekarar, ana saran adadin wayoyin zamani na duniya ya karu da kashi 10% idan aka kwatanta da na shekarar da ta gabata, kuma kasuwar kasuwar wayoyin hannu 5G zai karu daga 18% a bara zuwa sama da 35% wannan shekara. Abubuwan siliki na wayoyin hannu 5G shima Zai karu idan aka kwatanta da 4G smart phones.
Sa hannun jari na ƙasashen waje: kowa nasa ne, TSMC ke da magana ta ƙarshe!
Wei Zhejia yana tsammanin kasuwar semiconductor (ban da ƙwaƙwalwa) kasuwar zata haɓaka da kusan 8% a 2021, kuma masana'antar ƙera wafer zata haɓaka da kusan 10%. Dangane da dala, TSMC tana da kwarin gwiwa cewa za ta ƙara yawan shekarun samartaka, wanda ya fi yawan aikin kasuwa gabaɗaya.
Ta hanyar fasaha, TSMC 3nm na shirin fara samar da gwaji a 2021, kuma ana sa ran samar da taro a rabin na biyu na 2022. "Muna da kwarin gwiwa cewa fasahar TSMC 3nm za ta zama wata muhimmiyar fasaha mai dorewa," in ji Wei Zhejia.
Manazarcin Bernstein Mark (Mark Li) ya yi amannar cewa TSMC ne kawai a halin yanzu ke da ingantaccen tsarin da ake buƙata a wannan duniyar. Idan har yanzu Intel ta aminta da muhimmin 3nm ga TSMC, 3nm zai zama mafi iko na TSMC. Matsayin kamfanin yana da mahimmanci.
"Ainihi yanzu ne, TSMC ce dashi!"Hou Mingxiao ya yi wannan tsokaci, "Ya ce komai an kirga shi, saboda kowa abokin cinikinsa ne."